A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
